BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
75-86 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
93-68 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.15
ERA
Ldr 2.30
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
39%
YANKEES
61%
ORIOLES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BAL By 1-2 runs
9.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
4.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.8%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
2.71
BALTIMORE
New York
6.03
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.3
B
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
New York
NYY
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.711
OPS
▲
1.041
199
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+101.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Hits (L5)
+58.2% more
New York: 8.4
vs
Baltimore: 5.3
Home Runs (L5)
+58.0% more
New York: 2.2
vs
Baltimore: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+50.0% more
New York: 16.1
vs
Baltimore: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
2.7
2
NYY Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 5.3
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.4
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 8.0
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 10.7
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.2
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47%
76-85
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-66
61%
95-60-1
53%
86-76
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
81-73-7
54%
81-70-5
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-6
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