Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Phillies MIN @ PHI

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

70-91  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

95-66  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Travis Adams
STARTING PITCHER

Travis Adams

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Travis Adams None-None 7.49 -- 0.2 --
Orion Kerkering None-None 3.30 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
7.49 ERA Ldr 3.30
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
35%
📊
PHILLIES
65%
TWINS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

63.6%

Phillies Cover

36.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

17.2%

PHI By 1-2 runs

15.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.88
MINNESOTA
4.49
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 PHI @ MIN 7 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 PHI @ MIN 9 - 1
Aug 13, 2026 PHI @ MIN 7 - 1
Sep 28, 2025 MIN @ PHI 1 - 2
Sep 27, 2025 MIN @ PHI 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.720
OPS
▲ .724
187 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Philadelphia: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +27.3% more
Minnesota: 1.8 vs Philadelphia: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season) +23.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.9 1
PHI Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.1 3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 11.0 16.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 15.2 6.0 / 7.0
Walks 1.8 / 1.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIN
PHI
MIN
ML
59% 97-67
52% 84-78
49% 80-84
50% 80-81
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 95-67
51% 83-81
59% 95-66
TTL
57% 88-67-9
51% 78-75-9
51% 78-76-9
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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