Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Giants COL @ SF

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

43-118  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

80-81  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 3.96 -- 1.0 1
Logan Webb None-None 3.22 -- 5.1 8
None-None W-L None-None
3.96 ERA Ldr 3.22
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
📊
GIANTS
73%
ROCKIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

35.7%

Giants Cover

64.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.57
COLORADO
4.04
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
7
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +78.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +30.8% more
San Francisco: 9.3 vs Colorado: 7.1
Hits (L5) +8.1% more
San Francisco: 6.8 vs Colorado: 6.3
Walks (L5) +40.7% more
Colorado: 4.0 vs San Francisco: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.6 0
SF Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 6.3 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 7.1 13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 12.3 14.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.4 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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