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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

86-75  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

72-89  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Cam Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Smith

#11 | Right Field
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cam Smith None-None -- -- -- --
Sam Bachman None-None 6.20 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 6.20
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
59%
📊
ANGELS
41%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

58.9%

Angels Cover

41.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.5%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.1%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.15
HOUSTON
3.25
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +42.4% more
Houston: 3.7 vs Los Angeles: 2.1
Home Runs (L5) +29.9% more
Houston: 1.9 vs Los Angeles: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +25.5% more
Houston: 14.3 vs Los Angeles: 10.7
Hits (L5) +20.7% more
Houston: 7.1 vs Los Angeles: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.2 6
LAA Score 3.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.6 / 7.1 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.9 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.5 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 14.3 9.0 / 24.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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