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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

80-81  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

89-72  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Randy Vasquez
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Vasquez

#98 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandyn Garcia None-None 5.65 -- 0.2 --
Randy Vasquez None-None 3.84 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.65 ERA Ldr 3.84
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
44%
📊
PADRES
56%
DIAMONDBACKS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Diego)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

32.0%

Padres Cover

68.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

ARI By 1-2 runs

13.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

8.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.21
ARIZONA
6.08
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SD 4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026 ARI @ SD 7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026 ARI @ SD 11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026 SD @ ARI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 SD @ ARI 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.720
OPS
▲ .925
166 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +82.4% more
San Diego: 1.9 vs Arizona: 1.0
Walks (L5) +59.8% more
San Diego: 4.9 vs Arizona: 3.1
Runs per Game (Season) +31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Arizona: 4.6
Total Bases (L5) +22.6% more
San Diego: 14.8 vs Arizona: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.2 4
SD Score 6.1 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.1 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 8.4 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 12.1 18.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.9 / 3.1 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
54% 86-74
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 91-70
55% 92-75
56% 89-71
TTL
51% 82-80-6
52% 80-73-8
54% 86-74-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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