Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Cubs STL @ CHC

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

78-83  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

91-70  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.06 -- 1.0 2
Javier Assad None-None 3.65 -- 5.1 6
None-None W-L None-None
2.06 Ldr ERA 3.65
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
42%
📊
CUBS
58%
CARDINALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Chicago)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

27.3%

Cubs Cover

72.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

STL By 1-2 runs

12.4%

STL By 3-4 runs

6.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.04
ST. LOUIS
5.45
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691 ▲
OPS
.374
167 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +200.0% more
Chicago: 3.0 vs St. Louis: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +77.0% more
Chicago: 21.6 vs St. Louis: 12.2
Strikeouts (L5) +33.0% more
Chicago: 10.7 vs St. Louis: 8.0
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Chicago: 9.7 vs St. Louis: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 0
CHC Score 5.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 7.6 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 3.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 8.0 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 21.6 / 12.2 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58% 93-68
53% 85-74
51% 82-79
52% 84-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-70
47% 75-85-1
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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