Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rhode Island @ W Michigan URI @ WMU

RHODE ISLAND

RHODE ISLANDURI

4-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 6:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

1-3  |  Home

47
Key Game
Trey Lubin
KEY GAME

Trey Lubin

#3 | Defensive Back
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Trey Lubin None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RHODE ISLAND
100%
📊
W MICHIGAN
0%
RHODE ISLAND --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Western Michigan)
Rhode IslandURI (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rhode Island Cover

0.0%

W Michigan Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

URI By 1-6 points

0.0%

URI By 7-13 points

0.0%

WMU By 1-6 points

0.1%

WMU By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
21
RHODE ISLAND
70
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
17
RHODE ISLAND
31
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
C
Sim W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 URI @ WMU 14 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.5% more
Western Michigan: 120.6 vs Rhode Island: 73.8
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Western Michigan: 15.8 vs Rhode Island: 14.5
Turnovers (L5) +40.3% more
Rhode Island: 2.1 vs Western Michigan: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.1% more
Rhode Island: 304.3 vs Western Michigan: 273.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
URI Score 21.0 14
WMU Score 70.0 47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.8 / 14.5 25.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 120.6 / 73.8 216.0 / -5.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 273.7 / 304.3 372.0 / 251.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.1 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
URI
--
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
URI
--
WMU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
URI
--
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
URI
WMU
URI
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
ATS
80% 4-1
0% 0-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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