BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
75-85 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
92-68 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Blackburn
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Paul Blackburn | None-None | 6.23 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40 Ldr
ERA
6.23
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
39%
YANKEES
61%
ORIOLES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BAL By 1-2 runs
10.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
5.0%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
2.69
BALTIMORE
New York
5.9
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.2
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
New York
NYY
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.711
OPS
▲
1.041
199
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+101.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Hits (L5)
+40.8% more
New York: 9.1
vs
Baltimore: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+28.2% more
New York: 16.1
vs
Baltimore: 12.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.8%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
2.7
1
NYY Score
5.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 6.5
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 8.6
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 12.6
16.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47%
76-85
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-66
61%
95-60-1
53%
86-76
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
81-73-7
54%
81-70-5
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-6
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