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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

43-117  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

79-81  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.48 -- 1.0 2
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.48 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
📊
GIANTS
73%
ROCKIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

37.6%

Giants Cover

62.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.9%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.73
COLORADO
3.99
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
7
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +67.4% more
San Francisco: 15.1 vs Colorado: 9.0
Errors (L5) +67.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +66.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Colorado: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +38.8% more
San Francisco: 10.0 vs Colorado: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.7 3
SF Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 6.0 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 7.2 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 9.0 8.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.0 / 5.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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