PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
70-90 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
75-85 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | None-None | 4.02 | -- | 5.2 | 6 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.26 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.02
ERA
Ldr 3.26
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
47%
BRAVES
53%
PIRATES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
14.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
8.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5.32
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
3.65
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
7
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.734
OPS
▲
.757
186
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+15.6% more
Pittsburgh: 3.1
vs
Atlanta: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.1% more
Pittsburgh: 9.7
vs
Atlanta: 8.7
Hits (L5)
+8.6% more
Pittsburgh: 9.2
vs
Atlanta: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.3
3
ATL Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.2
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.7
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 15.3
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.1
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PIT
ATL
PIT
ML
46%
77-90
52%
82-77
54%
90-78
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
83-73-11
47%
72-81-6
49%
76-80-11
50%
79-78-6
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