CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
82-78 | Road
7
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
96-64 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Anderson
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.88 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Grant Anderson | None-None | 3.23 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.88 Ldr
ERA
3.23
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
41%
BREWERS
59%
REDS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
28%
Under 0
72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.8%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.1%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.5
CINCINNATI
Milwaukee
4.69
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CIN @ MIL
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
CIN @ MIL
9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026
CIN @ MIL
0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026
MIL @ CIN
8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026
MIL @ CIN
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.699
OPS
▲
.743
213
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+25.2% more
Milwaukee: 2.8
vs
Cincinnati: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+4.4%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.5
7
MIL Score
4.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 8.5
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 10.1
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 12.3
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.3
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62%
101-61
55%
88-71
52%
84-78
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-77-8
54%
83-72-5
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