Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Mariners LAD @ SEA

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

91-69  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

90-70  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 2.37 -- 1.0 3
Andres Munoz None-None 1.73 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.37 ERA Ldr 1.73
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
51%
📊
MARINERS
49%
DODGERS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

55.2%

Mariners Cover

44.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.0%

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.4%

SEA By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.99
LOS ANGELES
6.47
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Mariners (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 6
Jul 29, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 SEA @ LAD 7 - 6
Sep 28, 2025 LAD @ SEA 6 - 1
Sep 27, 2025 LAD @ SEA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.762 ▲
OPS
.693
204 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +50.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Seattle: 0.3
Walks (L5) +49.0% more
Los Angeles: 3.6 vs Seattle: 1.8
Home Runs (L5) +24.6% more
Los Angeles: 1.9 vs Seattle: 1.4
Runs per Game (Season) +17.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 7.0 5
SEA Score 6.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 8.1 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.9 / 11.3 6.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 15.3 12.0 / 13.0
Walks 1.8 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
LAD
SEA
LAD
ML
50% 81-81
56% 92-73
52% 85-77
48% 79-87
ATS
60% 98-64
59% 98-67
59% 95-67
43% 72-94
TTL
56% 85-67-10
48% 77-82-6
53% 81-71-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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