DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
0-0-0 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
0-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
RED WINGS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
DET By 1 goal
13.2%
DET By 2-3 goals
10.8%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
27.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2.65
DETROIT
Pittsburgh
3.47
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Detroit
2
DETROIT
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 5
Jan 3, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 1
Jan 1, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 29, 2025
PIT @ DET
2 - 1
Sep 26, 2025
DET @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+19.9%
Pittsburgh: 42.8%
vs
Detroit: 23.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+13.2% more
Pittsburgh: 3.5
vs
Detroit: 3.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.0%
Pittsburgh: 51.1%
vs
Detroit: 43.1%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+35.3% more
Detroit: 15.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.7
2
PIT Score
3.5
3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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