MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
69-90 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
94-65 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Travis Adams
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Adams | None-None | 7.64 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 2.06 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.64
ERA
Ldr 2.06
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
35%
PHILLIES
65%
TWINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.0%
MIN By 3-4 runs
14.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
5.56
MINNESOTA
Philadelphia
5.21
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
PHI @ MIN
9 - 1
Aug 13, 2026
PHI @ MIN
7 - 1
Sep 28, 2025
MIN @ PHI
1 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
MIN @ PHI
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.720
OPS
▲
.724
187
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.2% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.4% more
Minnesota: 8.9
vs
Philadelphia: 7.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.1%
Minnesota: 31.7%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
5.6
1
PHI Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.1
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.9
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 13.1
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.1
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIN
PHI
MIN
ML
59%
97-67
52%
84-78
49%
80-84
50%
80-81
ATS
65%
107-57
59%
95-67
51%
83-81
59%
95-66
TTL
57%
88-67-9
51%
78-75-9
51%
78-76-9
53%
80-72-9
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