PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
69-90 | Road
9
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
75-84 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 5.29 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.29
ERA
Ldr 3.60
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
46%
BRAVES
54%
PIRATES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
14.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.58
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
4.16
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.734
OPS
▲
.757
186
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.0%
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
Atlanta: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.6
9
ATL Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 6.8
8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 0.5
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 10.1
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 11.0
16.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.1
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PIT
ATL
PIT
ML
46%
77-90
52%
82-77
54%
90-78
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
83-73-11
47%
72-81-6
49%
76-80-11
50%
79-78-6
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