CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
81-78 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
96-63 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Ortiz
#3 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Joey Ortiz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.93
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
41%
BREWERS
59%
REDS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
33%
Under 0
67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.2%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.4%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.69
CINCINNATI
Milwaukee
5.12
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CIN @ MIL
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
CIN @ MIL
9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026
CIN @ MIL
0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026
MIL @ CIN
8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026
MIL @ CIN
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.699
OPS
▲
.743
213
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+72.9% more
Milwaukee: 3.3
vs
Cincinnati: 1.9
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.4
vs
Cincinnati: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+4.4%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.7
3
MIL Score
5.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.3
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.7
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 12.5
4.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.3 / 1.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62%
101-61
55%
88-71
52%
84-78
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-77-8
54%
83-72-5
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