Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Angels HOU @ LAA

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

85-74  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

71-88  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 2.28 -- 0.2 --
Jose Fermin None-None 4.46 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.28 Ldr ERA 4.46
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
59%
📊
ANGELS
41%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

55.8%

Angels Cover

44.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.2%

HOU By 3-4 runs

15.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.14
HOUSTON
3.56
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Houston: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Hits (L5) +17.0% more
Houston: 7.7 vs Los Angeles: 6.4
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +124.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.9 vs Houston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.1 3
LAA Score 3.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 7.7 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.0 13.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 11.9 16.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.0 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 1 hour, 34 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 12 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 22 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 7 hours, 23 minutes ago