ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
80-79 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
87-72 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 3.92 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 2.67 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.92
ERA
Ldr 2.67
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
PADRES
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
17.8%
SD By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.27
ARIZONA
San Diego
4.92
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+21.7% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.1% more
Arizona: 9.6
vs
San Diego: 8.5
Home Runs (L5)
+88.0% more
San Diego: 1.4
vs
Arizona: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.3
4
SD Score
4.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.3
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.6
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 11.6
16.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.9
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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