Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Giants COL @ SF

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

43-116  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

78-81  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.51 -- 1.0 1
Trevor McDonald None-None 1.80 -- 7.0 10
None-None W-L None-None
2.51 ERA Ldr 1.80
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
28%
📊
GIANTS
72%
ROCKIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

38.9%

Giants Cover

61.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.2%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.92
COLORADO
4.05
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +53.5% more
San Francisco: 14.6 vs Colorado: 9.5
Home Runs (L5) +49.0% more
San Francisco: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.5
Hits (L5) +37.2% more
San Francisco: 8.9 vs Colorado: 6.5
Walks (L5) +11.6% more
Colorado: 3.5 vs San Francisco: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.9 3
SF Score 4.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 6.5 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.8 13.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 9.5 16.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.5 0.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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