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FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

3-1  |  Home

46
Key Game
Darryll Desir
KEY GAME

Darryll Desir

#1 | Defensive Lineman
@
Elijah Slibeck
KEY GAME

Elijah Slibeck

#99 | Punter
Player
Darryll Desir None-None
Elijah Slibeck None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
0%
📊
VIRGINIA
100%
FLORIDA ST --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (Florida State)
Florida StFSU (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

100.0%

Virginia Cover

0.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FSU -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

FSU By 1-6 points

0.0%

FSU By 7-13 points

0.2%

UVA By 1-6 points

0.0%

UVA By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
59
FLORIDA STATE
7
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
17
FLORIDA STATE
34
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -52.0
B
Sim Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UVA @ FSU 7 - 38
Sep 26, 2025 FSU @ UVA 38 - 46
Sep 14, 2019 FSU @ UVA 24 - 31
Nov 8, 2014 UVA @ FSU 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.3% more
Florida State: 1.4 vs Virginia: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.8% more
Florida State: 314.3 vs Virginia: 227.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Florida State: 0.6 vs Virginia: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 59.0 38
UVA Score 7.0 46
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.6 / 26.8 27.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 227.0 / 314.3 211.0 / 256.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 528.3 / 558.5 440.0 / 514.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
FSU
UVA
FSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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