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TCU

TCUTCU

3-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

3-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
@
Clayton Smith
KEY GAME

Clayton Smith

#10 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Nate McCashland None-None
Clayton Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
100%
📊
ARIZONA ST
0%
TCU --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
98.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Arizona State)
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

38.8%

Arizona St Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ASU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

TCU By 1-6 points

14.7%

TCU By 7-13 points

12.1%

ASU By 1-6 points

17.0%

ASU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
47
TCU
51
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
27
TCU
24
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim TCU Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Sim TCU (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 98.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2025 TCU @ ASU 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.6% more
Arizona State: 213.4 vs TCU: 149.6
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Arizona State: 0.6 vs TCU: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +51.4% more
TCU: 1.1 vs Arizona State: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
TCU: 0.6 vs Arizona State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 47.0 24
ASU Score 51.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 23.8 25.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 213.4 / 149.6 207.0 / 10.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.31 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 419.7 / 478.5 498.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
TCU
ASU
TCU
ML
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
TTL
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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