Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rutgers @ Minnesota RUTG @ MINN

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

3-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

2-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
@
Emmanuel Karmo
KEY GAME

Emmanuel Karmo

#2 | Linebacker
Player
Jakob Anderson None-None
Emmanuel Karmo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RUTGERS
100%
📊
MINNESOTA
0%
RUTGERS --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Minnesota)
RutgersRUTG (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rutgers Cover

4.3%

Minnesota Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

RUTG By 1-6 points

2.5%

RUTG By 7-13 points

1.1%

MINN By 1-6 points

5.9%

MINN By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18
RUTGERS
42
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
RUTGERS
27
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Minnesota Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Minnesota Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Minnesota (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Minnesota (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 RUTG @ MINN 28 - 31
Nov 9, 2024 MINN @ RUTG 19 - 26
Oct 29, 2022 RUTG @ MINN 0 - 31
Oct 19, 2019 MINN @ RUTG 42 - 7
Oct 22, 2016 RUTG @ MINN 32 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +91.0% more
Minnesota: 1.4 vs Rutgers: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.3% more
Minnesota: 164.6 vs Rutgers: 136.8
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Rutgers: 25.5 vs Minnesota: 22.1
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Rutgers: 435.6 vs Minnesota: 390.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score 18.0 28
MINN Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 25.5 20.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 164.6 / 136.8 35.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 390.9 / 435.6 359.0 / 387.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
RUTG
MINN
RUTG
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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