Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Vanderbilt USU @ VAN

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

3-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:45 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

4-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
D'Andre Barnes
KEY GAME

D'Andre Barnes

#26 | Safety
@
Justin Dewers
KEY GAME

Justin Dewers

#47 | Place kicker
Player
D'Andre Barnes None-None
Justin Dewers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
100%
📊
VANDERBILT
0%
UTAH STATE --
VANDERBILT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Utah StateUSU (-3.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

15.9%

Vanderbilt Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

USU By 1-6 points

7.9%

USU By 7-13 points

4.7%

VAN By 1-6 points

12.9%

VAN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
56
UTAH STATE
70
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
20
UTAH STATE
27
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Vanderbilt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Vanderbilt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 USU @ VAN 35 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +49.6% more
Utah State: 1.2 vs Vanderbilt: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 56.0 35
VAN Score 70.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 23.1 31.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 211.1 / 229.2 222.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 459.0 / 482.6 543.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
USU
VAN
USU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
TTL
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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