Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ C Michigan EMU @ CMU

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

1-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Rudy Kessinger None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
0%
📊
C MICHIGAN
100%
E MICHIGAN --
C MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Eastern Michigan)
E MichiganEMU (-3.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

66.6%

C Michigan Cover

33.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around EMU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

EMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

EMU By 7-13 points

19.0%

CMU By 1-6 points

13.5%

CMU By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17
EASTERN MICHIGAN
11
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
20
EASTERN MICHIGAN
27
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI E Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim C Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI E Michigan (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim C Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 EMU @ CMU 13 - 24
Oct 19, 2024 CMU @ EMU 34 - 38
Sep 30, 2023 EMU @ CMU 23 - 26
Nov 25, 2022 CMU @ EMU 19 - 38
Nov 26, 2021 EMU @ CMU 10 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Eastern Michigan: 395.0 vs Central Michigan: 317.2
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Eastern Michigan: 19.8 vs Central Michigan: 16.8
Turnovers (L5) +54.2% more
Central Michigan: 1.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 17.0 13
CMU Score 11.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 19.8 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 152.3 / 150.9 305.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 317.2 / 395.0 445.0 / 298.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
CMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
EMU
CMU
EMU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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