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GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

2-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 1:30 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

2-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
100%
📊
JAMES MADISON
0%
GA SOUTHERN --
JAMES MADISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (James Madison)
GA SouthernGASO (-3.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

44.3%

James Madison Cover

55.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

GASO By 1-6 points

15.7%

GASO By 7-13 points

13.8%

JMU By 1-6 points

16.9%

JMU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
22
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
24
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
31
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim James Madison Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI James Madison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim James Madison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 GASO @ JMU 10 - 35
Oct 19, 2024 JMU @ GASO 14 - 28
Oct 14, 2023 GASO @ JMU 13 - 41
Oct 15, 2022 JMU @ GASO 38 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.4% more
James Madison: 211.9 vs Georgia Southern: 176.0
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
James Madison: 0.6 vs Georgia Southern: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +24.1% more
Georgia Southern: 1.7 vs James Madison: 1.3
First Downs (L5) +9.8% more
Georgia Southern: 24.1 vs James Madison: 21.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 22.0 10
JMU Score 24.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 24.1 29.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 211.9 / 176.0 331.0 / 27.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 390.5 / 415.3 479.0 / 192.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
GASO
JMU
GASO
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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