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UCLA

UCLAUCLA

0-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

1-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
@
Michael Kilbane
KEY GAME

Michael Kilbane

#47 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
Michael Kilbane None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
0%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
100%
UCLA --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (UCLA)
UCLAUCLA (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

99.4%

Northwestern Cover

0.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UCLA -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

UCLA By 1-6 points

1.4%

UCLA By 7-13 points

4.1%

NU By 1-6 points

0.4%

NU By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
42
UCLA
7
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
17
UCLA
31
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UCLA Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Northwestern Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UCLA (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 UCLA @ NU 14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +100.0% more
Northwestern: 2.3 vs UCLA: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.5% more
Northwestern: 156.1 vs UCLA: 116.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Northwestern: 0.4 vs UCLA: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 42.0 14
NU Score 7.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 18.8 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 156.1 / 116.0 199.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 345.6 / 343.8 314.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
NU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
NU
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
UCLA
NU
UCLA
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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