Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Texas A&M AUB @ TA&M

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

3-0  |  Home

16
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Bravion Rogers
KEY GAME

Bravion Rogers

#19 | Defensive Back
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Bravion Rogers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
100%
📊
TEXAS A&M
0%
AUBURN --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Texas A&M)
AuburnAUB (-3.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

5.0%

Texas A&M Cover

95.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

AUB By 1-6 points

2.9%

AUB By 7-13 points

1.3%

TA&M By 1-6 points

6.5%

TA&M By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
21
AUBURN
44
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
24
AUBURN
27
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 AUB @ TA&M 10 - 16
Nov 23, 2024 TA&M @ AUB 41 - 43
Sep 23, 2023 AUB @ TA&M 10 - 27
Nov 12, 2022 TA&M @ AUB 10 - 13
Nov 6, 2021 AUB @ TA&M 3 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +63.0% more
Texas A&M: 1.1 vs Auburn: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +25.8% more
Texas A&M: 464.1 vs Auburn: 369.0
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Texas A&M: 23.7 vs Auburn: 21.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 21.0 10
TA&M Score 44.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 21.1 21.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 156.8 / 158.6 207.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 464.1 / 369.0 414.0 / 177.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
AUB
TA&M
AUB
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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