INDIANA
INDIANAIU
4-0 | Road
20
IOWA
IOWAIOWA
3-1 | Home
15
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME
Mitch McCarthy
#44 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Bryce Hawthorne
#96 | Defensive Lineman| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mitch McCarthy | None-None |
| Bryce Hawthorne | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
100%
IOWA
0%
INDIANA
--
IOWA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)
IU By 1-6 points
1.2%
IU By 7-13 points
0.4%
IOWA By 1-6 points
3.3%
IOWA By 7-13 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
13
INDIANA
Iowa
42
IOWA
Simulated Score
Indiana
23
INDIANA
Iowa
17
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Iowa
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Indiana
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Iowa (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Sim
Indiana (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2025
IU @ IOWA
20 - 15
Sep 4, 2021
IU @ IOWA
6 - 34
Oct 13, 2018
IOWA @ IU
42 - 16
Nov 7, 2015
IOWA @ IU
35 - 27
Oct 11, 2014
IU @ IOWA
29 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+19.0% more
Iowa: 0.4
vs
Indiana: 0.2
Total Yards (L5)
+39.2% more
Indiana: 551.1
vs
Iowa: 334.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+33.9% more
Indiana: 271.9
vs
Iowa: 179.6
First Downs (L5)
+32.7% more
Indiana: 28.8
vs
Iowa: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
13.0
20
IOWA Score
42.0
15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.4 / 28.8
17.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards
179.6 / 271.9
92.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.6
0.38 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.55 / 0.46
Total Yards
334.9 / 551.1
284.0 / 337.0
Turnovers
0.4 / 0.2
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
IOWA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
IOWA
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
IU
IOWA
IU
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
TTL
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
0%
0-5
100%
5-0
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