Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah @ West Virginia UTAH @ WVU

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

3-1  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

2-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
Dillon Curtis
KEY GAME

Dillon Curtis

#17 | Place kicker
@
Keyshawn Robinson
KEY GAME

Keyshawn Robinson

#20 | Cornerback
Player
Dillon Curtis None-None
Keyshawn Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH
100%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
0%
UTAH --
WEST VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (West Virginia)
UtahUTAH (-3.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah Cover

47.2%

West Virginia Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WVU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

UTAH By 1-6 points

16.1%

UTAH By 7-13 points

14.6%

WVU By 1-6 points

16.7%

WVU By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
UTAH
7
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
27
UTAH
24
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI West Virginia Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI West Virginia (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Utah (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 UTAH @ WVU 48 - 14
Dec 26, 2017 UTAH @ WVU 30 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs West Virginia: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 6.0 48
WVU Score 7.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 21.2 14.0 / 33.0
Rushing Yards 186.3 / 189.5 261.0 / 242.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 389.1 / 381.7 346.0 / 532.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
WVU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
UTAH
WVU
UTAH
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-4-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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