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LSU

LSULSU

4-0  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

4-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Princewill Umanmielen
KEY GAME

Princewill Umanmielen

#1 | Defensive End
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Princewill Umanmielen None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
LSU --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
93.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Ole Miss)
LSULSU (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

LSU Cover

0.3%

Ole Miss Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

LSU By 1-6 points

0.2%

LSU By 7-13 points

0.0%

MISS By 1-6 points

0.7%

MISS By 7-13 points

2.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27
LSU
66
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
31
LSU
34
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
C
Sim Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 93.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 LSU @ MISS 24 - 32
Sep 27, 2025 LSU @ MISS 19 - 24
Oct 12, 2024 MISS @ LSU 26 - 29
Sep 30, 2023 LSU @ MISS 49 - 55
Oct 22, 2022 MISS @ LSU 20 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +69.4% more
Ole Miss: 201.4 vs LSU: 118.9
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Ole Miss: 522.5 vs LSU: 419.1
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Ole Miss: 1.0 vs LSU: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LSU Score 27.0 19
MISS Score 66.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 23.3 28.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 201.4 / 118.9 166.0 / 57.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 522.5 / 419.1 480.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
LSU
MISS
LSU
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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