Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Buffalo CONN @ BUFF

UCONN

UCONNCONN

2-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
UB Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

2-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ethan Hogg
KEY GAME

Ethan Hogg

#19 | Linebacker
@
Miles Greer
KEY GAME

Miles Greer

#6 | Safety
Player
Ethan Hogg None-None
Miles Greer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
0%
📊
BUFFALO
100%
UCONN --
BUFFALO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
67.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (UConn)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

93.3%

Buffalo Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

CONN By 1-6 points

7.9%

CONN By 7-13 points

14.6%

BUFF By 1-6 points

3.8%

BUFF By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
44
UCONN
23
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
27
UCONN
20
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UConn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UConn (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim UConn (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 67.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 CONN @ BUFF 20 - 17
Sep 28, 2024 BUFF @ CONN 3 - 47
Sep 28, 2013 CONN @ BUFF 12 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +19.2% more
UConn: 448.3 vs Buffalo: 362.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.0% more
UConn: 197.6 vs Buffalo: 172.0
First Downs (L5) +9.7% more
UConn: 21.6 vs Buffalo: 19.5
Turnovers (L5) +88.0% more
Buffalo: 1.0 vs UConn: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 44.0 20
BUFF Score 23.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 21.6 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 172.0 / 197.6 204.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 362.4 / 448.3 329.0 / 320.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
CONN
BUFF
CONN
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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