Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ Oklahoma St BAY @ OKST

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

2-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Gavin Freeman
KEY GAME

Gavin Freeman

#6 | Wide Receiver
@
Kobi Foreman
KEY GAME

Kobi Foreman

#14 | Cornerback
Player
Gavin Freeman None-None
Kobi Foreman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
BAYLOR --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
89.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Baylor)
BaylorBAY (-3.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

69.1%

Oklahoma St Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAY -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BAY By 1-6 points

16.5%

BAY By 7-13 points

19.3%

OKST By 1-6 points

12.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
48
BAYLOR
41
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
27
BAYLOR
31
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Baylor Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Baylor (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Oklahoma St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 89.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 BAY @ OKST 45 - 27
Oct 26, 2024 OKST @ BAY 28 - 38
Oct 1, 2022 OKST @ BAY 36 - 25
Dec 4, 2021 BAY @ OKST 21 - 16
Oct 2, 2021 BAY @ OKST 14 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.9% more
Baylor: 1.9 vs Oklahoma State: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +27.9% more
Baylor: 457.7 vs Oklahoma State: 329.9
First Downs (L5) +24.4% more
Baylor: 25.0 vs Oklahoma State: 18.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Baylor: 0.4 vs Oklahoma State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 48.0 45
OKST Score 41.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 25.0 22.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 145.6 / 148.5 157.0 / 219.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 329.9 / 457.7 448.0 / 612.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
BAY
OKST
BAY
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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