Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Toledo AKR @ TOL

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

2-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Emilio Duran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
100%
📊
TOLEDO
0%
AKRON --
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
89.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Toledo)
AkronAKR (-3.5) 0 ToledoTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

41.5%

Toledo Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

AKR By 1-6 points

15.3%

AKR By 7-13 points

12.9%

TOL By 1-6 points

17.0%

TOL By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
43
AKRON
46
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
17
AKRON
31
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 89.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 AKR @ TOL 3 - 45
Nov 26, 2024 TOL @ AKR 14 - 21
Nov 27, 2021 AKR @ TOL 14 - 49
Dec 2, 2017 AKR @ TOL 28 - 45
Oct 21, 2017 AKR @ TOL 21 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.0% more
Toledo: 1.5 vs Akron: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.7% more
Toledo: 194.9 vs Akron: 176.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 43.0 3
TOL Score 46.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 20.7 28.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 194.9 / 176.0 245.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 400.0 / 392.6 538.0 / 134.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
AKR
TOL
AKR
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
TTL
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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