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SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

2-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-2  |  Home

3
Key Game
Malachi Finau
KEY GAME

Malachi Finau

#6 | Defensive Lineman
@
Montrel Canion
KEY GAME

Montrel Canion

#0 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Malachi Finau None-None
Montrel Canion None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
📊
N ILLINOIS
0%
SAN DIEGO ST --
N ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Northern Illinois)
San Diego StSDSU (-3.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

12.7%

N Illinois Cover

87.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NIU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

6.5%

SDSU By 7-13 points

3.6%

NIU By 1-6 points

11.5%

NIU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
33
SAN DIEGO STATE
49
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
17
SAN DIEGO STATE
27
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI N Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim N Illinois Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI N Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
C
Sim N Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 SDSU @ NIU 6 - 3
Sep 30, 2017 NIU @ SDSU 28 - 34
Sep 17, 2016 SDSU @ NIU 42 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Northern Illinois: 0.8 vs San Diego State: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Northern Illinois: 161.1 vs San Diego State: 136.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
San Diego State: 326.7 vs Northern Illinois: 295.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 33.0 6
NIU Score 49.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 17.0 10.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 161.1 / 136.9 112.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 295.8 / 326.7 169.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
NIU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
SDSU
NIU
SDSU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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