Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulane @ Tulsa TULN @ TLSA

TULANE

TULANETULN

3-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 4:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

2-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
Kevin Adams III
KEY GAME

Kevin Adams III

#7 | Safety
@
Tyler Rich
KEY GAME

Tyler Rich

#58 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Kevin Adams III None-None
Tyler Rich None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
0%
📊
TULSA
100%
TULANE --
TULSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
86.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TULANE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Tulane)
TulaneTULN (-3.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

71.6%

Tulsa Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TULN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

TULN By 1-6 points

16.1%

TULN By 7-13 points

19.5%

TLSA By 1-6 points

12.2%

TLSA By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
47
TULANE
39
TULSA
Simulated Score
31
TULANE
20
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tulane Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tulane Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tulane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim Tulane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 86.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 TULN @ TLSA 31 - 14
Nov 11, 2023 TLSA @ TULN 22 - 24
Nov 5, 2022 TULN @ TLSA 27 - 13
Nov 13, 2021 TLSA @ TULN 20 - 13
Nov 19, 2020 TULN @ TLSA 24 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +61.3% more
Tulsa: 1.8 vs Tulane: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Tulsa: 397.2 vs Tulane: 354.0
First Downs (L5) +11.1% more
Tulsa: 22.0 vs Tulane: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 47.0 31
TLSA Score 39.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 19.8 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 171.5 / 182.1 92.0 / 185.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 397.2 / 354.0 337.0 / 437.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
TULN
TLSA
TULN
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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