Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ New Mexico NMSU @ UNM

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

2-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 4:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

2-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
DJ Cloyd
KEY GAME

DJ Cloyd

#20 | Safety
@
Deshaun Buchanan
KEY GAME

Deshaun Buchanan

#8 | Running Back
Player
DJ Cloyd None-None
Deshaun Buchanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO
0%
NEW MEXICO ST --
NEW MEXICO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Mexico)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

47.2%

New Mexico Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

NMSU By 1-6 points

16.1%

NMSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

UNM By 1-6 points

16.7%

UNM By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
45
NEW MEXICO STATE
46
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
24
NEW MEXICO STATE
27
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim New Mexico (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 UNM @ NMSU 42 - 18
Sep 27, 2025 NMSU @ UNM 20 - 38
Sep 28, 2024 UNM @ NMSU 50 - 40
Sep 16, 2023 NMSU @ UNM 27 - 17
Oct 15, 2022 UNM @ NMSU 9 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +191.0% more
New Mexico: 246.3 vs New Mexico State: 84.6
Total Yards (L5) +26.6% more
New Mexico: 420.7 vs New Mexico State: 332.4
First Downs (L5) +25.2% more
New Mexico: 22.7 vs New Mexico State: 18.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
New Mexico: 0.4 vs New Mexico State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 45.0 20
UNM Score 46.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 18.1 24.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 246.3 / 84.6 132.0 / 15.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 420.7 / 332.4 476.0 / 304.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
NMSU
UNM
NMSU
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
ATS
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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