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TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

3-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 4:15 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
100%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
TENNESSEE --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Mississippi State)
TennesseeTENN (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

28.4%

Mississippi St Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

TENN By 1-6 points

12.2%

TENN By 7-13 points

8.8%

MSST By 1-6 points

16.1%

MSST By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TENNESSEE
11
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
17
TENNESSEE
35
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 14.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 TENN @ MSST 41 - 34
Nov 9, 2024 MSST @ TENN 14 - 33
Oct 12, 2019 MSST @ TENN 10 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.3% more
Tennessee: 1.5 vs Mississippi State: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +22.7% more
Tennessee: 27.2 vs Mississippi State: 21.0
Total Yards (L5) +15.8% more
Tennessee: 512.2 vs Mississippi State: 431.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Mississippi State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 3.0 41
MSST Score 11.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 27.2 23.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 212.5 / 209.3 203.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 431.2 / 512.2 378.0 / 466.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
TENN
MSST
TENN
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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