Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Kennesaw St MTSU @ KENN

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 6:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Jaden Martin-Burgess
KEY GAME

Jaden Martin-Burgess

#32 | Defensive Back
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Jaden Martin-Burgess None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
0%
📊
KENNESAW ST
100%
MTSU --
KENNESAW ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
MTSUMTSU (-3.5) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

80.4%

Kennesaw St Cover

19.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MTSU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MTSU By 1-6 points

14.2%

MTSU By 7-13 points

19.5%

KENN By 1-6 points

9.3%

KENN By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
58
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
46
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
31
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
20
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI MTSU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim MTSU Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI MTSU (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim MTSU (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 104.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 MTSU @ KENN 16 - 24
Oct 15, 2024 KENN @ MTSU 5 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +90.9% more
Kennesaw State: 152.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 80.0
Turnovers (L5) +75.0% more
Kennesaw State: 1.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Kennesaw State: 20.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 16.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.0% more
Kennesaw State: 367.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 327.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 58.0 16
KENN Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 16.9 17.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 152.7 / 80.0 157.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.12 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 367.0 / 327.7 334.0 / 460.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
MTSU
KENN
MTSU
ML
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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