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JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

2-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

2-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
0%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
JAX STATE --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
95.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

95.0%

Southern Miss Cover

5.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JXST -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

JXST By 1-6 points

6.5%

JXST By 7-13 points

12.9%

USM By 1-6 points

2.9%

USM By 7-13 points

1.3%

AI Model Projected Score
59
JACKSONVILLE STATE
36
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE STATE
27
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jax State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Southern Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jax State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim Southern Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 95.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 JXST @ USM 25 - 42
Sep 21, 2024 USM @ JXST 7 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.2% more
Jacksonville State: 265.9 vs Southern Miss: 116.5
Total Yards (L5) +10.1% more
Jacksonville State: 439.9 vs Southern Miss: 395.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Southern Miss: 1.0 vs Jacksonville State: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 59.0 25
USM Score 36.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 23.1 25.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 116.5 / 265.9 225.0 / 262.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 395.6 / 439.9 377.0 / 390.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
JXST
USM
JXST
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 6-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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