Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ FAU MEM @ FAU

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

4-0  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

1-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Taylor Burton
KEY GAME

Taylor Burton

#90 | Defensive Lineman
@
Tyclean Luman
KEY GAME

Tyclean Luman

#15 | Defensive Back
Player
Taylor Burton None-None
Tyclean Luman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
100%
📊
FAU
0%
MEMPHIS --
FAU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
MemphisMEM (-3.5) 0 FAUFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

9.9%

FAU Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FAU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

MEM By 1-6 points

5.3%

MEM By 7-13 points

2.8%

FAU By 1-6 points

10.0%

FAU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32
MEMPHIS
50
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
31
MEMPHIS
27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FAU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Memphis Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI FAU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Memphis (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 MEM @ FAU 55 - 26
Dec 23, 2020 MEM @ FAU 25 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +128.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.4 vs Memphis: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.7% more
Memphis: 236.9 vs Florida Atlantic: 173.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 32.0 55
FAU Score 50.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.7 / 23.6 19.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 173.5 / 236.9 75.0 / 296.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 479.4 / 452.6 397.0 / 492.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
FAU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
MEM
FAU
MEM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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