Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Iowa State ARIZ @ ISU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

3-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

4-0  |  Home

39
Key Game
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
@
Caden Matson
KEY GAME

Caden Matson

#43 | Safety
Player
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
Caden Matson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
100%
📊
IOWA STATE
0%
ARIZONA --
IOWA STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Iowa State)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

0.1%

Iowa State Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

0.0%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

0.0%

ISU By 1-6 points

0.2%

ISU By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ARIZONA
51
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
27
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 ARIZ @ ISU 14 - 39
Key Model Drivers
No driver metrics compiled for this game.
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 6.0 14
ISU Score 51.0 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 21.2 19.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 160.1 / 160.5 111.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 389.4 / 397.5 399.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
ISU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
ARIZ
ISU
ARIZ
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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