Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia Tech @ NC State VT @ NCSU

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

1-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
@
Jamel Johnson
KEY GAME

Jamel Johnson

#-- | Cornerback
Player
John Love None-None
Jamel Johnson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA TECH
0%
📊
NC STATE
100%
VIRGINIA TECH --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Virginia Tech)
Virginia TechVT (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Tech Cover

71.6%

NC State Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VT -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

VT By 1-6 points

16.1%

VT By 7-13 points

19.5%

NCSU By 1-6 points

12.2%

NCSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17
VIRGINIA TECH
9
NC STATE
Simulated Score
20
VIRGINIA TECH
27
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia Tech (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim NC State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 VT @ NCSU 23 - 21
Nov 18, 2023 NCSU @ VT 35 - 28
Oct 27, 2022 VT @ NCSU 21 - 22
Sep 26, 2020 NCSU @ VT 24 - 45
Oct 9, 2015 NCSU @ VT 13 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.2% more
NC State: 1.7 vs Virginia Tech: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
NC State: 182.4 vs Virginia Tech: 145.2
Total Yards (L5) +17.5% more
NC State: 453.7 vs Virginia Tech: 386.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 17.0 23
NCSU Score 9.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 22.1 18.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 182.4 / 145.2 59.0 / 229.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 453.7 / 386.1 299.0 / 406.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
VT
NCSU
VT
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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