Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Penn State ORE @ PSU

OREGON

OREGONORE

4-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Ify Obidegwu
KEY GAME

Ify Obidegwu

#7 | Defensive Back
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Ify Obidegwu None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
100%
📊
PENN STATE
0%
OREGON --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-56.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +56.0 points (Penn State)
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

0.0%

Penn State Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -56.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

ORE By 1-6 points

0.0%

ORE By 7-13 points

0.0%

PSU By 1-6 points

0.0%

PSU By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3
OREGON
59
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
24
OREGON
28
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penn State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -56.0
C
Sim Penn State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 ORE @ PSU 30 - 24
Dec 7, 2024 PSU @ ORE 37 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Penn State: 0.6 vs Oregon: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Oregon: 497.6 vs Penn State: 424.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Oregon: 0.5 vs Penn State: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.2% more
Oregon: 226.5 vs Penn State: 207.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 3.0 30
PSU Score 59.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 24.9 15.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 207.9 / 226.5 139.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 424.0 / 497.6 276.0 / 424.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
ORE
PSU
ORE
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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