Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ Boise St APP @ BOIS

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

2-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

2-1  |  Home

47
Key Game
Juan Berchal
KEY GAME

Juan Berchal

#0 | Defensive Back
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Juan Berchal None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
100%
📊
BOISE ST
0%
APP STATE --
BOISE ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Boise State)
App StateAPP (-3.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

15.9%

Boise St Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BOIS -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

APP By 1-6 points

7.9%

APP By 7-13 points

4.7%

BOIS By 1-6 points

12.9%

BOIS By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
7
APP STATE
21
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
27
APP STATE
31
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boise St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boise St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boise St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Boise St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 APP @ BOIS 14 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.7% more
Boise State: 240.0 vs App State: 153.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Boise State: 0.5 vs App State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.1% more
Boise State: 517.6 vs App State: 479.1
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
App State: 2.5 vs Boise State: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 7.0 14
BOIS Score 21.0 47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 24.9 25.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 240.0 / 153.2 152.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 517.6 / 479.1 473.0 / 184.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.5 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
APP
BOIS
APP
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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