BYU
BYUBYU
3-0 | Road
24
COLORADO
COLORADOCOLO
2-2 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Tiger Bachmeier
#19 | Wide Receiver@
KEY GAME
Damon Greaves
#35 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Tiger Bachmeier | None-None |
| Damon Greaves | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
0%
COLORADO
100%
BYU
--
COLORADO
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BYU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
BYU By 1-6 points
16.9%
BYU By 7-13 points
18.5%
COLO By 1-6 points
14.2%
COLO By 7-13 points
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
BYU
24
BYU
Colorado
19
COLORADO
Simulated Score
BYU
24
BYU
Colorado
27
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
BYU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Colorado
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
BYU (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim
Colorado (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2025
BYU @ COLO
24 - 21
Dec 28, 2024
BYU @ COLO
36 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+39.9% more
BYU: 210.9
vs
Colorado: 126.7
First Downs (L5)
+10.2% more
BYU: 21.6
vs
Colorado: 19.4
Time of Possession (L5)
+8.0% more
BYU: 0.5
vs
Colorado: 0.5
Turnovers (L5)
+19.0% more
Colorado: 1.0
vs
BYU: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BYU Score
24.0
24
COLO Score
19.0
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.4 / 21.6
17.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards
126.7 / 210.9
172.0 / 208.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards
387.9 / 412.1
291.0 / 387.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +2.8
COLO
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -6.8
ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +2.8
COLO
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -6.8
ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.8
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -8.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
BYU
COLO
BYU
ML
80%
4-1
100%
3-0
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
ATS
60%
3-2
67%
2-1
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
TTL
60%
3-2
0%
0-3
0%
0-5
25%
1-3
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