PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
69-89 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
80-78 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.55 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.97 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.55
ERA
Ldr 2.97
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
43%
REDS
57%
PIRATES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.2%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.82
PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati
4.29
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734
▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+82.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.1% more
Pittsburgh: 11.1
vs
Cincinnati: 9.0
Hits (L5)
+13.9% more
Pittsburgh: 8.6
vs
Cincinnati: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
1
CIN Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.6
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 11.1
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 14.5
11.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.7
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55%
88-71
52%
82-77
49%
79-81
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
81-73-5
47%
72-81-6
54%
83-72-5
50%
79-78-6
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