HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
84-74 | Road
11
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
75-83 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Basso
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brady Basso | None-None | 1.74 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.30
ERA
Ldr 1.74
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
56%
ATHLETICS
44%
ASTROS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
HOU By 1-2 runs
9.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
4.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
2.81
HOUSTON
Athletics
6.39
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.6
B
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.719
4
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4750.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Total Bases (L5)
+46.4% more
Athletics: 12.3
vs
Houston: 8.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.7% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Houston: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
Athletics: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
2.8
11
ATH Score
6.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 5.6
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.4
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 8.4
20.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.0
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
91-72
50%
81-80
55%
90-74
TTL
54%
84-73-5
45%
70-84-9
42%
66-90-5
45%
69-86-9
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