MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
77-81 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
93-65 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Edmundo Sosa
#33 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.34 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Edmundo Sosa | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.34
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
PHILLIES
60%
MARLINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.6
MIAMI
Philadelphia
6.59
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+266.0% more
Philadelphia: 3.6
vs
Miami: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+72.6% more
Philadelphia: 22.9
vs
Miami: 13.2
Errors (L5)
+32.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.4
vs
Miami: 1.1
Hits (L5)
+13.7% more
Philadelphia: 10.0
vs
Miami: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.6
0
PHI Score
6.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 8.8
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
3.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.8
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
22.9 / 13.2
7.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.4 / 2.9
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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