DETROIT
TIGERSDET
85-73 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
86-72 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 3.42 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 4.85 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.42 Ldr
ERA
4.85
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
49%
GUARDIANS
51%
TIGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-2 runs
10.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
5.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.08
DETROIT
Cleveland
6.1
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.0% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
Detroit: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.0% more
Cleveland: 12.1
vs
Detroit: 8.6
Total Bases (L5)
+37.0% more
Cleveland: 13.3
vs
Detroit: 9.7
Hits (L5)
+11.9% more
Cleveland: 7.5
vs
Detroit: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.1
4
CLE Score
6.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.7
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
12.1 / 8.6
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 9.7
8.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.0
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-75
54%
86-73
49%
80-83
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
93-69
64%
101-58
58%
95-68
57%
91-69
TTL
56%
89-71-2
46%
69-81-9
44%
70-90-2
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox