Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Yankees CHW @ NYY

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

58-100  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Sep 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

90-68  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Davis Martin None-None 4.10 -- 4.1 5
David Bednar None-None 2.37 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.10 ERA Ldr 2.37
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
30%
📊
YANKEES
70%
WHITE SOX --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (New York)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

24.7%

Yankees Cover

75.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

CHW By 1-2 runs

11.4%

CHW By 3-4 runs

6.0%

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.8%

NYY By 3-4 runs

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.53
CHICAGO
5.26
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
70% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 NYY @ CHW 1 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 NYY @ CHW 5 - 6
Jul 28, 2026 NYY @ CHW 3 - 2
Jul 27, 2026 NYY @ CHW 9 - 5
Jun 18, 2026 CHW @ NYY 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
New York NYY
1
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.324
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.415
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.826
OPS
▲ 1.041
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +121.0% more
New York: 1.7 vs Chicago: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +108.0% more
New York: 17.2 vs Chicago: 8.3
Hits (L5) +69.7% more
New York: 9.8 vs Chicago: 5.8
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Chicago: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 2.5 3
NYY Score 5.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 5.8 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 10.0 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.2 / 8.3 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.3 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CHW
NYY
CHW
ML
47% 76-85
48% 81-87
52% 85-77
56% 94-74
ATS
59% 95-66
59% 99-69
53% 86-76
55% 93-75
TTL
53% 81-73-7
58% 97-69-2
53% 82-72-7
51% 85-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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